REDWatch Unpacks the Stockland Consortium Waterloo Redevelopment Announcement

Following a tender process, the NSW Government has selected Stockland, Link Wentworth, City West Housing, and Birribee as Homes NSW’s preferred partners to lead the Waterloo renewal. There is no detail in the announcement about the consortium’s winning proposal and most of the detail in the announcement is a restatement of earlier figures.

Homes NSW have simultaneously announced that the first relocation notices have been pushed back until the beginning of 2025. With six months’ notice the first relocations should now mesh with the availability of the 70 new social housing units being built above the Waterloo Metro. The announcement does not tell us which CHP will run the social housing on the Metro site. In terms of expertise we would expect Link Wentworth to run the social housing, Birribee to run Aboriginal Housing and City West to run the affordable housing but that is not stated anywhere.

It is clear that much still needs to be agreed between Homes NSW and the consortium. Stockland’s notice to the Australian Stock Exchange said: “The transaction remains subject to completion of documentation and all relevant approvals.” The Media Statement from the Housing Minister put it this way: ‘Homes NSW will now start negotiating contracts with the building partners to plan, design, deliver and fund the development over the next 10-15 years, as well as ongoing operations. The negotiations are expected to take six months, and are the final step in the competitive, multi-stage procurement process”. Stockland anticipates “commencement of works is in 2027, subject to all relevant planning and internal approvals”.

So it will take some time for the community to learn details of what Stockland propose for Waterloo and what Homes NSW and Stockland agree. Of importance will be how the Stockland consortium plans to deliver the increased affordable housing required, how much of the 20% will be in perpetuity and what Stockland has planned for the private half of the estate.

As Homes NSW sits down to finalise arrangements with the consortium it is of concern that Home NSW have not yet responded to concerns raised in submissions regarding its Draft People and Place Plan. This is a key component in this next phase which the Minister’s media release says “will ensure Homes NSW and the building partners are aligned on roles and responsibilities, a program for renewal and how the partnership will work with the community to deliver better outcomes for the people of Waterloo”. Elements of People and Place relate to human services and need to integrate with the work being done on current issues by the Waterloo Human Services Collaborative. Other elements have impacts wider than Waterloo South and need to be part of a wide estate management plan rather than just relate to Waterloo South. 

It is encouraging that Minister Jackson has kept her undertaking of advising tenants impacted by an announcement before they hear about it in the media. In this case a message went out almost simultaneously with Stockland’s required ASX announcement and the media release and media coverage followed the next day.

The three statements from Homes NSW can be found on the REDWatch website under Homes NSW Advise Tenants Stockland Consortium is Waterloo South Developer or for the Minister’s letter to tenants and the Minister’s media release.  These are the statements from consortium partners Stockland, Link Wentworth and City West Housing.

Articles about the announcement appeared in the SMH’s Plans to build 3000 new homes in Sydney’s inner south one step closer and The Australian’s Stockland back in the apartment business with Waterloo Estate win. The Australian reported “Citi analysts estimated the project value between $2-3bn and put potential profits at $300-$600m, based on margins for similar developments”. The Australian also reported that: “Morgan Stanley analysts said Stockland would derive profits from the 1500 build-to-sell lots which could have an end value of about $2.2bn, as well as development fees on the affordable housing, which would be on sold to its partners. The social housing will be delivered to the government in lieu of land payments for the entire project”.

Geoffrey Turnbull - REDWatch Spokesperson 12 August 2024